What's Changed
Back in September 2025, forecasts showed transmission charges (the fee for using the national grid) nearly doubling from April 2026. But Ofgem's final decision in December came in lower than expected.
The result: December's draft figures are about 20% lower than September's forecasts. Still a big increase — just not as bad as feared.
The Numbers: Before and After
For households: Standing charges now look like rising from around £42 to £62 per year from April 2026 — compared to the £80/year initially feared. That's a 23% reduction from earlier projections.
September vs December: How Much Different Customers Face
Comparing original September forecasts with revised December figures
Source: National Grid ESO forecasts (Sept 2025) and draft tariffs (Dec 2025)
What This Means for Different Customers
Most homes and small businesses are now looking at average increases of around 64% (down from the 94% originally forecast). But it varies a lot depending on how you're connected:
- Smaller connections: ~41% increase (down from ~70%)
- Larger industrial connections: ~104% increase (down from ~141%)
Important: These December figures are still drafts. Final numbers come out 31 January 2026. But the direction is clear — increases will be real but less severe than first feared.
Why the Reduction?
Ofgem approved £28.1 billion in grid investment — significantly less than what the grid operators asked for. They cut proposed spending by about 15%.
Key reasons:
- Lower profits allowed: Grid companies won't make quite as much return as they wanted
- Tighter spending scrutiny: Ofgem challenged more of the proposed costs
- Spreading the pain: Some costs are being pushed to later years to soften the initial blow
What Hasn't Changed
The fundamental reasons for rising charges remain:
- Massive grid upgrades needed to connect offshore wind farms
- Old infrastructure needs replacing
- More capacity needed as we electrify heating and transport
A 64% average increase is still the largest single-year jump in transmission charges most people will have experienced. And charges will keep rising through 2031.
What Happens Next
- 31 January 2026: Final tariff numbers published
- 1 April 2026: New charges take effect
- 2026–2031: Continued increases as grid investment ramps up
What to do: Even with the reduction, check your energy contract — especially if you're on a fixed deal. Many contracts allow suppliers to pass through network cost increases. Your standing charge could rise even mid-contract.
The Bigger Picture
The ~20% reduction is welcome news. But let's be clear: households will still see standing charges rise by roughly 48% (£42 to £62), and businesses face even bigger increases.
This is a fundamental shift in how we pay for the grid. The "good news" is relative — charges are rising less steeply than feared, but they're still rising significantly.