January will be expensive; the only open question is by how much. The January 2027 price cap forecast from every major supplier now sits above £2,000 a year, against the £1,723 cap in force today. So should I fix my energy tariff before January, or wait for Ofgem to confirm what the forward market has already shown?
The forecasts have crossed £2,000
Ofgem confirmed the October cap at £1,723 on 26 August. Within four weeks every energy price cap prediction from a major supplier had moved above £2,000 for January, even on Ofgem's lower benchmark of 2,500kWh of electricity and 9,500kWh of gas.
| Forecaster | Published | January 2027 | vs October |
|---|---|---|---|
| MoneySavingExpert average of EDF, British Gas and E.ON Next | 23 Sep | £2,152 | +25% |
| E.ON Next | 15 Sep | £2,131 | +24% |
| EDF | 22 Sep | £2,098 | +22% |
| Cornwall Insight | 26 Aug | £1,872 | +9% |
The EDF price cap forecast of £2,098 marks the bottom of the supplier range, with the E.ON Next price cap prediction of £2,131 just above it. Cornwall Insight is the outlier because its figure is the oldest, built from prices on 25 August and not revised since.
Ofgem sets the January cap from wholesale prices between 19 August and 18 November, and confirms it by 25 November, by which point six of those thirteen weeks are already priced in at elevated levels.
What an energy price cap January 2027 above £2,000 does to your bill
The annual headline hides the season. January to March carries around 39% of a household's annual gas use, against 11% in July to September, so cap and bill move by different amounts.
How SwitchInsights analysed these figures
Each scenario splits into standing charges, which accrue every day of the year, and unit costs, which follow demand. Every quarter is then weighted across Ofgem's published seasonal demand figures, the same approach as our SwitchInsights October cap analysis.| Quarter and scenario | Annual cap | Quarterly bill | Per month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul to Sep 2026, confirmed | £1,663 | £306 | £102 |
| Oct to Dec 2026, confirmed | £1,723 | £498 | £166 |
| Jan to Mar 2027, if the cap held flat | £1,723 | £550 | £183 |
| Jan to Mar 2027, Cornwall Insight | £1,872 | £599 | £200 |
| Jan to Mar 2027, EDF | £2,098 | £675 | £225 |
| Jan to Mar 2027, supplier average | £2,152 | £693 | £231 |
Even with a flat cap, the season alone adds around £52 between the October and January quarters. At the supplier forecasts, January costs more than double the summer quarter: roughly £231 a month against £102.
Where this sits in energy price cap history
Headline caps are hard to compare over time, because Ofgem changed its typical-household benchmark in October 2023 and again in July 2026, as our SwitchInsights consumption benchmark explainer covers. The chart restates every period on 2026 values, so each point compares like for like.
On this basis, the SwitchInsights analysis of the restated series finds no quarter above £1,766 since the crisis ended in July 2023, so a January cap between £2,098 and £2,152 would sit roughly a fifth above that post-crisis high. The only higher readings come from late 2022 and early 2023, when the Energy Price Guarantee limited what households paid regardless of the cap.
Why fixed deals can undercut the January cap
The January cap is priced from wholesale gas for delivery this winter, the dearest part of the forward curve. On 17 September, Winter 2026 gas traded around 196p per therm against 133p for Summer 2027. Gas also sets most wholesale power prices, which our gas and electricity explainer sets out in full.
A fixed tariff is priced across its whole term, so a two-year deal averages in two summers of cheaper delivery, which is why suppliers can sell fixes well below the January forecasts. The curve moves both ways, however: on one day in early September, Winter 2026 gas fell more than 7% on talks over the Middle East conflict.
Should you fix for 12 months or 24?
Both terms cover January, which means the choice turns on what happens across the year after it.
| Factor | 12-month fix | 24-month fix |
|---|---|---|
| Price today | Usually £30 to £50 a year dearer | The cheapest fixes on the market |
| Covers winter 2027 to 2028 | No, you reprice next autumn | Yes, at a rate agreed now |
| If wholesale prices fall | Exposure ends sooner | You stay locked in unless you pay to leave |
| Typical exit fees | £75 to £100 per fuel | £75 to £100 per fuel |
One claim is worth correcting: the electricity VAT cut fixed tariff customers receive is the same one capped customers receive, so it does not favour the shorter term, and VAT returns to 5% on 1 April 2027 unless the government extends the cut.
The deciding question is how much certainty a household wants beyond next winter, which is where the two terms diverge. A two-year fix also covers energy bills winter 2027 to 2028 will bring, a period no forecaster has priced.
What a good fixed energy rate looks like right now
Fixed prices have already moved. In August the cheapest two-year fix, from Outfox, came in around £1,515 a year; by 23 September the top fixes sat 1.6% to 3.2% above the July cap.
That places E.ON Next's 24-month fix at roughly £1,690 a year, below the October cap and more than £400 under the January supplier average, which saves around £135 to £155 across the January quarter alone.
Any fix priced below the £1,723 October cap at your own usage beats every published January 2027 forecast, including the lowest. From that shortlist, the SwitchPilot Score ranks what is left by combining price, the Citizens Advice rating, the Ofgem complaints record, price certainty and exit fees.
- Compare the annual estimate at your own usage, which matters far more than the typical-household headline.
- Keep exit fees at £100 per fuel or below, so leaving stays affordable if prices fall.
- Check the standing charge separately, and confirm any condition such as a smart meter before signing.
Rates change daily, and the SwitchPilot tariff tracker shows which deals currently sit below the cap. For how large and small suppliers price differently, see our switching strategy, which compares Fuse against EDF.
Should you wait for Ofgem's November announcement?
The fix or wait energy tariff decision turns on one judgement: waiting only pays if wholesale prices fall from here. Fixed prices follow the forward market within days, whereas November confirms a window that has already closed.
Energy exit fees set the cost of being wrong, which is the number worth checking before signing. On a dual-fuel fix at £100 per fuel, leaving costs £200, against a saving of roughly £135 to £155 in the January quarter alone.
Households on a fix ending this winter should note the 49-day rule: suppliers cannot charge exit fees in the last 49 days of a contract.
A fix below October's £1,723 cap hedges against every published January forecast, and a two-year term with a modest exit fee buys certainty through the following winter. The one approach we would avoid is waiting on a default tariff for Ofgem to confirm what the market has shown.
January 2027 price cap: your questions answered
What will the energy price cap be in January 2027?
Supplier forecasts published in September put the January to March 2027 cap between £2,098 (EDF) and £2,152 (the MoneySavingExpert average of EDF, British Gas and E.ON Next). Cornwall Insight's older £1,872 forecast, from 26 August, sits below that range, and Ofgem confirms the real figure by 25 November.
Is it worth fixing energy prices now?
For most households on a default tariff, a fix below the £1,723 October cap at their own usage beats every published January forecast. The main risk is a sharp fall in wholesale prices, and an exit fee of £100 per fuel or less caps the cost of changing course.
Is a 2 year fixed energy tariff worth it?
Two-year fixes are currently the cheapest deals on the market, typically £30 to £50 a year below comparable 12-month fixes, and they cover the winter of 2027 to 2028 that no forecaster has priced. The trade-off is a longer lock-in if prices fall, which makes a low exit fee matter more on a longer term.
Cheapest fixed energy tariff September 2026: what tops the tables?
On 23 September, MoneySavingExpert listed E.ON Next Fixed 24m v73 as its top pick, around 1.6% above the July cap, or roughly £1,690 a year, with £100 exit fees per fuel. Outfox Fix'd Dual Sep26 18M v3 sat around 3.2% above, and prices change daily, so compare at your own postcode and usage.
How much will my energy bill be in January 2027?
Using Ofgem's seasonal demand weights, a typical dual-fuel household on 2,500kWh of electricity and 9,500kWh of gas would pay around £675 to £693 for January to March 2027, or £225 to £231 a month, against around £306 for the equivalent summer quarter.
When will Ofgem announce the January price cap?
Ofgem sets the January cap from wholesale prices across an assessment window running from 19 August to 18 November 2026, and confirms the level by 25 November, after which the new cap applies from 1 January to 31 March 2027.