The only confirmed figure on this page is £1,723. Ofgem set it for a typical dual-fuel direct debit household, as an annualised figure.1
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- Only £1,723 is confirmed, and every Q1 2027 figure is a forecast.
- Energy UK expects a rise of around £350 in January 2027, which it equates to the 2022/23 tipping point.
- Only the Warm Home Discount and Winter Fuel Payment pay households directly.
The Energy Price Guarantee 2026 equivalence
Energy UK's 3 October 2026 paper, Economic defence: tackling energy bills in winter 2026/27, warns that the Q1 2027 price cap could reach nearly £2,100. It estimates that this is equivalent to £2,500 at 2022/23 levels, the tipping point at which the government stepped in during the last crisis.4
The Energy UK price cap warning rests on a usage adjustment, not an inflation conversion. Typical energy use has fallen since 2022, so a £2,500 bill at 2022/23 levels is, like for like, equivalent to around £2,100 today.4 The paper separately notes that the £400 Energy Bill Support Scheme rebate cut a typical 2022/23 bill to £2,100.
Energy UK expects the cap to rise by around another £350 in January 2027.4 Cornwall Insight forecasts £1,999, £101 below that.2 The average of British Gas (£2,185), E.ON Next (£2,130) and EDF Energy (£2,083) forecasts is £2,133, £33 above it.3
Ofgem announces the Jan-Mar 2027 cap on or before 25 November 2026, and the assessment window runs to mid-November, so forecasts can still move.11
Energy UK has already adjusted for the benchmark difference. The 2022 guarantee assumed 2,900 kWh of electricity and 12,000 kWh of gas, against 2,500 kWh and 9,500 kWh today, and the paper converts for that fall.
The match is Energy UK's estimate applied to a forecast, and the Energy Bills Government Response 2026 tracker covers what ministers have committed.The Budget pressure on Chancellor John Healey
LBC reported on 7 October 2026 that Chancellor John Healey is working on plans to spend more than £1bn helping lower-income households, although final decisions have not been made.5 The likeliest route is a bigger Warm Home Discount, and Healey is reportedly considering an extra £100 on top of the current £150, paid by taxpayers rather than bill payers.
That extra payment would take the discount to £250, although nothing is decided and Treasury sources describe the 28 October Budget as narrow but focused on the cost of living.5 Energy UK argues for more: its paper asks ministers to provide tiered rebates based on need and to move remaining policy costs off electricity bills.6 The Autumn Budget 28 October Energy Support guide tracks what is confirmed.
A £100 uplift would cover about a third of the £276 rise to Cornwall Insight's forecast and under a quarter of the £410 rise to the supplier-forecast average.
Energy hardship support 2026: every route open now
Only two of four routes pay directly, and households in arrears should read the SwitchInsights analysis of the Energy Debt Crisis.
| Route | What it pays | Who gets it | Status for this winter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warm Home Discount | £150 off electricity | Households on a qualifying benefit on 23 August 2026, in England and Wales. | The supplier applies it, and a Budget uplift is reported but unconfirmed. |
| Winter Fuel Payment | £100 to £300 | People born on or before 27 June 1960, at a higher rate before 28 September 1946. | HMRC recovers it where income exceeds £35,000, and Scotland pays separately. |
| Supplier hardship funds | Set by each fund | Customers in arrears, including via the British Gas Energy Trust. | The rules vary by fund and by supplier. |
| Ofgem Energy Redress Scheme | No direct payment | Advice organisations funded by supplier penalties. | The scheme funds advice services and pays households no cash. |
Net energy bill 2027 for three households
SwitchInsights annualises each bill at typical use and subtracts the support a household can claim. Nobody pays the Q1 rate for a full year, so every figure is illustrative.
| Household | Support | Q4 2026 cap in force (confirmed) | Q1 2027, Cornwall forecast | Q1 2027, supplier-average forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pensioner aged 80 or over on Pension Credit | £450 | £1,273 | £1,549 | £1,683 |
| Working-age family on Universal Credit | £150 | £1,573 | £1,849 | £1,983 |
| Working household outside the benefit system | £0 | £1,723 | £1,999 | £2,133 |
The support is the same in the Q4 and Q1 columns, so it lowers each bill but does not offset the rise: every household faces the same £276 to £410 rise. Only a Warm Home Discount uplift at the Budget would offset part of that rise, and only for households that qualify.
What to do before the Budget
- Check your discount. Read the Warm Home Discount 2026 27 Qualifying Date guide.
- Act on arrears now. A supplier hardship fund is easier to reach before a debt hardens.
- Price your next deal. A fix could protect against the January rise, so compare the fixed price against the forecast range in the Q1 2027 Price Cap Forecast and check exit fees.
- Watch 28 October. A universal guarantee would change every row above.
Compare live prices on the SwitchPilot tariff tracker. This is not advice.
How SwitchInsights analysed this (SwitchPilot methodology): we take the Ofgem cap in force, the named forecasts from Cornwall Insight, British Gas, E.ON Next and EDF Energy, and the gov.uk support rules, then subtract each household's payments from the annualised bill. Nothing is weighted, and we update the page whenever a forecaster publishes a new figure.