What the energy price cap means for my bill at £1,999
The Cornwall Insight Q1 2027 forecast puts the January price cap at £1,999 a year, up £127 from the £1,872 it published on 26 August. The 16% rise compares £1,999 with the £1,723 cap in force today, and the figure is a forecast and not a bill.1
Cornwall Insight cites Middle East gas supply disruption. Against its own August figure the rise is 6.8%, so the 16% headline and the £127 revision measure different things.
At typical use, £1,999 is £276 a year above the cap now, or about £23 a month. The Q1 2027 price cap forecast works the quarterly pounds through.
| Forecaster | Q1 2027 forecast | Against the cap now | What the figure tells us |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cornwall Insight | £1,999 | +£276 (+16%) | Published 30 September, up £127 from £1,872 on 26 August. |
| E.ON Next | £2,065 | +£342 (+20%) | Sits £66 above Cornwall Insight. |
| ScottishPower | £2,077 | +£354 (+21%) | Sits £78 above Cornwall Insight. |
Inside the live Ofgem observation window: what the 16% rise means
Ofgem announces the Q1 cap on 25 November. It builds the figure from wholesale prices traded across roughly 19 August to 18 November, a 13-week observation window.3
By 7 October seven of the 13 weeks had traded, so about 54% of the average was set. Six weeks remain, and every session until 18 November still feeds the number.
Q1-27 NBP forward contracts rose 7.79% in the week to 6 October. NBP is the UK wholesale gas price, so the remaining weeks start from a higher level.
If the final six weeks traded 7.79% above the earlier average, the window average would rise by about 3.6%, which is 6/13 of 7.79%. That applies to the wholesale part of the cap only.
The £1,999 figure is the lowest of the three numbers in the table. The gas storage crunch and Q1 2027 bill risk analysis covers one driver, UK storage at 31.5% on 11 September.
Fix now: the saving at the cheapest fixed energy deal
The cheapest fixed deal in our feed is Fuse Energy Fixed 18m at £1,689 a year at typical use.4
| Scenario (annual cap level) | Fuse Energy Fixed 18m | Fuse Energy Fixed 24m | So Energy Kookaburra 24m |
|---|---|---|---|
| What the deal costs a year today | £1,689 | £1,676 | £1,773 |
| Cap in force now, £1,723 | £34 | £47 | -£50 |
| Twelve-month average of supplier forecasts, £1,936 | £247 | £260 | £163 |
| Cornwall Insight Q1 forecast, £1,999 | £310 | £323 | £226 |
| E.ON Next Q1 forecast, £2,065 | £376 | £389 | £292 |
The cheapest fix saves £310 a year against Cornwall Insight's Q1 figure and £376 against E.ON Next's. The cautious read is the twelve-month average row at £247, because a cap holding Q1 levels all year is the top of the range.
Even if the cap held at £1,723, the cheapest fix is £34 below it, while So Energy Kookaburra 24m costs £50 more. Trackers follow the cap up, as the tracker tariff vs fixed comparison shows.
Should I fix my energy now or wait for 25 November?
The fix now or wait for 25 November call turns on one fact: fixed prices follow forward wholesale prices daily, not the Ofgem announcement. Waiting buys a view of the cap, not a cheaper fix.
| Household | Decision | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| On the default tariff or a price cap tracker | Fix now | Every Q1 forecast sits above the cap you pay now, a tracker passes the full rise through, and the cheapest fix is already below the cap. |
| On a fix that ends before April 2027 | Fix now | You roll onto the default tariff at the end date, so the Q1 cap applies. Check when your supplier lets you lock a new deal. |
| On a fix that ends in April 2027 or later | Wait for 25 November | The Q1 cap cannot reach you while the fix runs, so waiting costs nothing. |
| On a prepayment meter or Economy 7 | Check your meter type first | The feed prices standard direct debit tariffs, so the table does not cover you. |
Fix now unless your current deal runs past March 2027. The saving is £310 a year against Cornwall Insight's Q1 figure, £247 against the twelve-month average and £34 even if the cap held at £1,723.
What to do next
Compare live prices for your own postcode on the SwitchPilot tariff tracker. The Q4 2026 switching strategy covers the supplier choice.
See also the best dual fuel suppliers 2026 and our UK energy bills 2027 forecast. This article is not financial advice.
How SwitchInsights tracked this: our analysis draws on our daily rate feed at Ofgem typical use, Ofgem's confirmed caps and named third-party forecasts. A supplier missing from the feed is named as missing, not filled with a number.